PwC's Deals Practice: Global Market Volatility Slows U.S. IPO Market
Monday, October 12th, 2015
U.S. IPO activity decreased in the third quarter of 2015, as market volatility increased and investors paused to evaluate the impact of slowing growth in China and other markets, among other global macro-economic and geopolitical concerns. There were a total of 45 IPOs that raised $7.3 billion in the third quarter of 2015, according to IPO Watch, a quarterly survey by PwC US. Total third quarter IPO volume and proceeds were 40 percent down from second quarter's levels, but were on-par with the activity of Q1 2015.
On a year-over-year comparative basis, third quarter 2015 IPO volume was down 34 percent, and proceeds were down 81 percent, due in no small part to the third quarter of 2014's near record $38.1 billion raise, which included the Alibaba mega IPO. Beyond the 161 IPOs this year, overall broader equity and debt markets activity in the U.S. also slowed dramatically in the third quarter as investors remained cautious in the face of global macro-economic uncertainty, combined with the traditional summer slowdown.
"The surge in market volatility - principally due to concerns about China's growth and the downturn in the Shanghai exchange which led to a negative effect on global financial markets - had a major impact on financing activity in the U.S.," said Neil Dhar, Partner, U.S. Capital Markets Leader, PwC's Deals Practice. "Against the backdrop of an uncertain global macro-economic environment, investors remained cautious on new issuers overall, while continuing to favor select high-growth companies, as reflected in healthy demand for biotech and biopharma IPOs. We expect financing activity, both equity and debt, to continue to stabilize in the near future, as investors tap ample liquidity to pursue growth opportunities in a modestly growing domestic economy and low-yield environment."
Continuing a recent trend, the healthcare industry continued to lead IPO market activity, in line with recent quarters, accounting for 42 percent of total volume with 19 IPOs. The financial sector led offering value, raising $2.5 billion in proceeds. Technology, a historically strong player in the IPO market, saw only two IPOs in the third quarter as high private valuations and increased later stage funding has made it possible for technology companies to fund operations without going public.
"Increased market volatility had a real impact on IPO pricing dynamics during the third quarter," said Derek Thomson, U.S. Capital Markets Research Leader, PwC's Deals Practice. "With 16 percent of IPOs downsizing their debuts, we are seeing the pendulum swing back to buyers. As the market settles, we believe this will prove beneficial to the IPO market as investors regain comfort with valuations and lend support to the most promising new issuers."
Financial sponsors and venture capital companies remained active in the third quarter of 2015, backing slightly more than 45 percent of IPO volume and value. A very active venture capital market continued to drive private valuations and was prolific in the biotech IPO sector.
For the first time since the third quarter of 2011, returns to IPO investors were negative, closing the quarter down five percent. However, IPO returns continue to outperform the market with the S&P closing down seven percent for the quarter. The highest IPO to quarter-end returns came from the healthcare and financial industries. The average first-day gain of the 45 IPOs that priced during the third quarter was 15 percent.
Also reflecting cautious investor demand, there were 139 U.S. follow-on offerings in the third quarter raising a total of $28.8 billion, which represented a decrease of 30 percent in volume and 45 percent in value from the previous quarter. Of the follow-on offerings in the third quarter, 25 percent were backed by financial sponsors looking to systematically exit portfolio investments.
Alongside the slide in IPO activity, investors also were more cautious in the high-yield debt markets, with only 61 high-yield debt issuances raising $39.8 billion, which represents a significant 60 percent decrease over the second quarter, and a 55 percent decrease compared to the same period last year. Of the high-yield deals completed, merger and acquisition financing accounted for the majority of the issuances, although over a third of the issuances were companies refinancing ahead of a contemplated Fed rate increase in 2015.