Metro Atlanta to Add 2.5 Million People, Reach 8 Million Mark by 2040

Staff Report From Metro Atlanta CEO

Friday, September 11th, 2015

The Atlanta region is expected to add 2.5 million people and 1.5 million jobs during the next 25 years, according to long-range population and employment forecasts issued by the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC).

ARC forecasts the 20-county region’s population will grow from 5.5 million to 8 million by 2040. That’s an increase from ARC’s 2011 long-range forecast, when the planning agency estimated the region’s population would reach 7.8 million by 2040 – an indication that metro Atlanta’s growth is back on track following the recession.

According to the new forecasts, much of the population increase will take place in existing suburbs. But significant growth is also expected in the region’s core, including the downtown Atlanta-Midtown-Buckhead spine and other neighborhoods inside I-285.

“There’s been a change in the region’s development pattern. People are choosing to live near jobs or transit, and walkable communities are rising in popularity,” said Jane Hayse, director of ARC’s Center for Livable Communities. “We see this trend continuing, and even accelerating, during the next 25 years.”

Metro Atlanta’s jobs will continue to be concentrated in the region’s core, major employment centers and along major highway corridors. In 2040, 44 percent of jobs will be located in these areas, which account for just six percent of the region’s land.

“While we’re seeing some traditional suburban development patterns changing around the region, the critical thing to remember is that we have weathered the recession and are now growing almost as quickly as before,” said Mike Alexander, manager of ARC’s Research & Analytics Division. “The Atlanta region is a hub for high tech, professional services and logistics jobs. And, being within a two-hour flight of 80 percent of the U.S. population, the region seems to have a solid economic footing for the future.”

ARC’s population and employment forecasts were created using a combination of public and private sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau, computer models and consultation with economists. The data will be used to help ARC and its partners develop The Atlanta Region’s Plan, a comprehensive, long-range blueprint to secure the region’s future. The plan is expected to be approved early next year.