January Sees Supply Fundamentals Drive Commodity Markets Lower

Press release from the issuing company

Thursday, February 12th, 2015

Commodity performance in January was largely driven by supply fundamentals across multiple commodity sectors, according to Credit Suisse Asset Management. 

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was negative for the month, with 17 out of 22 Index constituents trading lower.

Credit Suisse Asset Management observed the following: 

  • Livestock was the worst performing sector, down 8.52%, led lower by Lean Hogs. Live Cattle also declined 6.08% after the USDA reported higher beef production due to heavier cattle weights as a result of cheap feed and benign weather paired with reduced 2015 export forecasts. 
  • Energy declined 6.74% as WTI Crude Oil dropped the most within the sector, after the US Department of Energy reported larger-than-expected inventories of crude oil and a sharp decline in refinery utilization during the month.  
  • Agriculture was down 5.73%, led lower by increased global wheat supply expectations. This eased supply concerns emanating from Russia, which restricted wheat exports in December to control food costs due to a sharply declining Ruble. Soybeans and soy byproducts also declined after the USDA reported weaker export sales while forecasts of sufficient rains in Brazil ahead of the upcoming soybean harvest increased supply expectations. 
  • Industrial Metals was 5.36% lower, led by Copper, after the latest Chinese manufacturing data continued to indicate slight economic contraction, dampening demand expectations. Base metals were also impacted by declining oil prices, which reduced energy-related production costs for miners and smelters. 
  • Precious Metals was up 8.45% for the month. Demand expectations for precious metals increased after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its formal quantitative easing program on January 22nd, which was slightly larger than anticipated. 

Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities for Credit Suisse Asset Management said: "Supply fundamentals continued to be important drivers of commodity returns at the start of the new year. However, macroeconomic factors dominated. The SNB's announcement to end the minimum exchange rate between the Euro and Swiss Franc and the size of the ECB's quantitative easing program both supported precious metals. Weak China PMI indicators weighed on demand expectations for cyclically sensitive commodities. In the U.S., fourth quarter GDP came in lower-than-expected. However, personal consumption contributed significantly to GDP growth, due to a combination of low oil prices, falling unemployment, and strong trend in consumer confidence."

Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added, "The U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it may keep interest rates close to zero longer than originally anticipated. A large focus will be on the ECB's bond-buying program and the Eurozone's recovery. Further action from central banks could be supportive of global growth.  Attention will also be on crude oil to see if prices have declined enough to encourage production cuts.  The latest Baker Hughes U.S. rig count data were lower than expected and led to a sharp rally in WTI Crude Oil.  This was a positive indicator that producers are reacting to low oil prices."