February Sees Fundamental Factors Drive Commodity Markets Higher
Press release from the issuing company
Thursday, March 12th, 2015
Commodities were higher in February, largely driven by fundamental supply and demand factors, according to Credit Suisse Asset Management.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was positive for the month, with 12 out of 22 Index constituents trading higher.
Credit Suisse Asset Management observed the following:
- Energy was the best performing sector, up 8.43%, with all constituents posting positive returns. Petroleum products and Brent Crude Oil led the sector higher amid increased expectations of production cuts going forward. Notably, Brent Oil outperformed WTI Oil after the US Energy Information Administration reported an increase in US supplies for the 12th consecutive week.
- Agriculture increased 2.21%, led by Soybean Oil. Ongoing strikes in Brazil's largest soybean producing region reduced export capability, increasing fears over a potential supply shortage.
- Industrial Metals ended the period 1.13% higher, led by Copper, as reports of potentially more active fiscal policy out of China, including further reductions in banks' required reserve ratios and cutting of interest rates, coupled with positive preliminary Chinese manufacturing data increased demand expectations for base metals.
- Livestock declined 2.66%. Lean Hogs decreased the most due to increased pork production and reduced export availability amid labor strikes at US West Coast ports throughout the month, causing local inventories to build.
- Precious Metals ended the period 4.87% lower as concerns eased over a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone, reducing safe haven demand and dampening the appeal of precious metals.
Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities for Credit Suisse Asset Management said: "Supply and demand factors continued to be drivers of individual commodity returns, with the main focus on Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. Cold weather in the US increased demand for Heating Oil, while Gasoline demand remained high amid decreased refining capacity. Falling rig counts and announced reductions in capital expenditures increased expectations that supply may begin to normalize. Macroeconomic headlines also had an impact on multiple commodity sectors. In the US, inflation expectations remain below the US Federal Reserve's target. During the recent semiannual testimony, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen alluded to the possibility that the Fed may not increase interest rates in the near-term, and may delay a rate increase if their inflation and employment targets were not met."
Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added, "Globally, the main focus will be on how Chinese and European economies react to further accommodative efforts from their central banks. Global growth signals may improve as more active fiscal policy out of China may boost its manufacturing sector. In Europe, further easing measures confirmed the ECB's commitment to minimizing disinflation fears. In the medium- to long-term, economic recovery, primarily in Asiaand Europe, may be supportive of global commodity demand growth. However, diverging paths of economic revival may prolong a broad global recovery. As a result, idiosyncratic fundamental factors of individual commodities may continue to drive returns in the near-term."


