"The market is heading into a very interesting period," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "With low supply and low sales volume, and no tangible market change expected, a big decrease in the sales pace — a sizable drop in the SAAR — is likely in the offing for next month. In the winter, when low sales volumes are expected, seasonal adjustments can result in a relatively strong SAAR, as we have in January and February. But come spring, when sales are expected to be much higher, the SAAR will look particularly weak. Without a big jump in inventory, March's SAAR is going to show a significant decline."   

February 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights

• New-vehicle sales are expected to fall nearly 11% from last February but should increase nearly 8% from January 2022. February volume, however, is expected to show a modest increase compared to January.
• The SAAR in February 2022 is estimated to be 14.4 million, below last year's 15.9 million level, and down from January's 15.0 million pace.
• The Mid-Size SUV/Crossover segment will see a 2.7% year-over-year increase while all other segments are forecast to decreases with compact cars seeing the largest drop at -19.8%.

February 2022 Sales Forecast

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.