January new-vehicle sales, when announced next week, are expected to show gains over last year's product-constrained market. Cox Automotive forecasts sales volume in January to increase 8.3% over January 2023, a market that was still recovering from severe product shortages. Typically, January is the low-volume leader in any given year; volume in January is forecast to be down 21.3% month over month. December, historically, is the high-volume month in any given year.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, in January is forecast by Cox Automotive to finish near 15.8 million, down just slightly from the 15.9 SAAR in December, but up 0.7 million over last year's pace. The SAAR has bounced between 15.0 and 16.0 million throughout 2023, and this month's results are expected to remain within these boundaries.

"January is normally one of the slowest months for vehicle sales, as the December hangover and cold weather keep car and truck shoppers from wandering dealer lots," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "This January will be no exception, compounded by a few large storms and deep freezes across the country, which likely had an additional negative impact on sales. Unlike last year, though, available inventory and incentives will not be a problem."

Fleet sales are expected to be a key contributor to total new-vehicle sales in January and throughout 2024. Fleet sales were down slightly in October and November due to the UAW strike, but they rebounded in December. January is expected to continue that rebound, with strong commercial and rental vehicle sales anticipated. Cox Automotive is forecasting fleet sales in 2024 will increase more than 7% from 2023 and grow faster than retail sales.

January 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

January has 25 selling days, one more than last year but one less than last month.