The Cox Automotive forecast released today indicates that U.S. July new-vehicle sales will show some recovery from the widespread software outage that impacted sales and reporting last month. In July, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 16.0 million, an upward rebound from last month's surprisingly low 15.3 million level.

Last month, the sales pace had been forecast to finish much higher, but disruptions in dealership point-of-sale software programs at the end of June likely prevented some sales from being fully completed and reported. Those sales will likely be captured in this month's final tallies and, together with seasonal adjustments, will help push the pace well above the market's 15.5 million average over the last 18 months.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted: "July new-vehicle sales are expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as it has consistently over the last year. However, July sales will likely include some sales that were delayed from June, which should push the market toward the upper end of the sales range. How much is unknown, but tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected. Fleet sales are also unknown but will be an important factor in July's result. Fleet sales can lift or suppress the monthly sales pace, and recent trends suggest less activity from this channel."

According to Cox Automotive's Kelley Blue Book sales estimates, July sales volume is expected to fall to 1.29 million, down 1.3% from last year and down 3% from last month. Through the first half of 2024, monthly new-vehicle sales volume has averaged 1.31 million units. Total new-vehicle sales for calendar year 2024 are forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million, an increase from 2023 and the best year since 2019.

July 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. July 2024 has 25 selling days, the same as last year but one less than last month.