The growth rate of real gross domestic product is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet.

Latest forecast: 3.8 percent — May 30, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 3.7 percent on May 26. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.9 percent to 3.3 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.